The cost of solid-state batteries will be comparable to lithium-ion batteries in 2025
The energy density of solid-state batteries is 45% higher than that of liquid batteries of the same chemical composition. The use of non-flammable solid electrolytes also means that these batteries will be safer than traditional lithium-ion batteries.
Electric vehicles rely on existing lithium-ion batteries to provide sufficient range, but we still look forward to the arrival of solid-state batteries (SSB). Solid-state battery technology already exists and is feasible, but cost is an important factor hindering its development.
FutureBridge is a Dutch market analysis company that studies the future development trends of companies and provides suggestions to them. The company predicts that by 2025, the cost of solid-state batteries will be comparable to lithium-ion batteries. Although this does not mean that solid-state battery technology can be commercialized in 2025, it will undoubtedly be an important milestone in the development of electric vehicles-solid-state batteries charge faster, have a longer service life, and are safe in emergencies. Performance is more trustworthy.
It is predicted that vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries will be commercialized on a large scale in 2030 (perhaps earlier). Toyota has announced the launch of a prototype of a new electric vehicle using solid-state batteries in 2021. It is reported that solid-state batteries can be fully charged within 10 minutes, and can travel 500 kilometers per charge and have fewer safety issues. Toyota promises that under the same conditions, the cruising range of electric vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries will be more than twice that of vehicles equipped with traditional lithium-ion batteries.
If we can continue to in-depth research on solid-state batteries, the above prediction is likely to become a reality. In fact, Toyota hopes to sell its first electric vehicle equipped with solid-state batteries in the next 2-3 years. Volkswagen also intends to independently develop and produce solid-state battery packs by 2025. Nissan is also conducting related research and plans to launch a prototype in 2028. .
One of the hot topics that electric car enthusiasts discuss with each other is that lithium-ion battery packs will inevitably experience continuous decline in battery capacity over time. Because battery packs are very expensive, car owners hope they can be used in ideal conditions. Longer. Toyota stated that its goal is to make solid-state batteries have a service life of 30 years, which means that solid-state battery packs will maintain 90% of their original capacity after 30 years of normal use.
FutureBridge pointed out that as more and more automakers join the "competition", solid-state battery technology is accelerating development.
There are 426 patent applications related to solid-state battery technology in 2020. Among them, China and the United States have the largest number of patent applications, each accounting for 21% of the total, followed by Japan with 18%. Automakers accounted for 28% of patent applications for solid-state battery technology, followed by Toyota, Hyundai and Honda. The remaining 72% comes from different fields such as battery manufacturers, automotive suppliers, chemical companies and academia.
As early as 2010, the cost of lithium-ion batteries per 1kWh exceeded US$1,000, which has dropped by nearly 10 times in 10 years. The cost of lithium-ion batteries will continue to decline. According to forecasts, the average cost per 1kWh will drop to less than 60 US dollars by 2030. The cost of solid-state batteries does not seem to fall so drastically. However, there are already a large number of companies and departments actively working on it. Research on this technology, so it is not impossible to achieve this breakthrough.